I don’t like the clickbait title at all – Mastodon’s clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn’t stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
The graphs suggest that there is a dependence on surges to counteract slow decline.
On the very end of the graph you can see it sort of beginning to stabalize, there was even a small uptick in the second to last point, and sure, the last point shows a small decrease again.
My point is that it is too early to call out for danger regarding mastodon, that is too alarmist and may scare new users from the platform, speeding up the end of Mastodon.
So untill we have a period of time without surges it is hard to determine user growth
Fair enough.