I don’t like the clickbait title at all – Mastodon’s clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn’t stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
I kind of don’t want it to succeed to the level of Twitter. All the people I like on Mastodon are there now and the trolls and chuds are mostly staying away because they don’t get the attention of millions of eyeballs.